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Climate Prediction Center (CPC) One Month Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska


Identification Information:
(datsetid):gov.noaa.cpc:CPC-PREC-2WKLY-PPO-1-v1994
Citation:
Citation Information:
Originator: Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
Publication Date: 19941215
Title: Climate Prediction Center (CPC) One Month Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska
Geospatial Data Presentation Form: map (ascii, shp files, GIF Images)
Publication Information:
Publication Place: Maryland
Publisher: Climate Prediction Center
Online Linkage: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
Online Linkage: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/us_tempprcpfcst/seasonal.php
Online Linkage: ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpcfcsts/archives/long_lead/data/
Description:
Abstract: The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a probabilistic one-month precipitation outlook for the United States twice a month. CPC issues an initial monthly outlook with a lead time of 0.5 months on the third Thursday of every month. CPC issues an updated version of the monthly outlook with a lead time of 0.0 months on the last day of each month. For example, in mid-January, CPC will issue a One-Month Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook for February. An updated version of this outlook (valid for February) would then be issued at the end of January. New outlooks, valid for March, would then be released in mid-February and the end of February, respectively. CPC expresses the outlooks in a 3-category probabilistic format as the chance the total precipitation for the period will be above, below, or near median. CPC bases its definition of above median, near median, and below median by fitting a Gamma distribution to a thirty year climatology and dividing this distribution into equally likely thirds. Note that the base period for the thirty year climatology (currently beginning in 1981 and ending in 2010) is updated once per decade. CPC indicates the probability of the most likely category with shaded contours and labels the centers of maximum probability with the letters "A" (for Above Median), "B" (for Below Median), or "N" (for Near Median). For areas where a favored category cannot be determined, CPC indicates those areas with an "EC" meaning "Equal Chances". CPC also accompanies the outlook maps with a technical discussion of the meteorological and climatological basis for the outlooks. CPC may include analysis of statistical and numerical models, meteorological and sea-surface temperature patterns, trends and past analogs, and confidence factors in this technical discussion.
Purpose: These outlooks provide information to decision makers in weather and climate sensitive activities sensitive to monthly, seasonal, and inter-annual climate variation (e.g. weather risk management, energy/utilities, agriculture, hydrology, etc.). Since these outlooks pertain to the total precipitation for the entire valid period and not to the variability within it, they will not help people planning events for specific dates or sub-periods. The outlooks will be of most use for economic and business planning, particularly when used with 30 year base period means.
Supplemental Information: Precise schedule when this product is updated is located at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/schedule.html. Discussion on forecaster rationale is located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html. Note that CPC began issuing an updated version of the monthly outlook at the end of each month on July 31, 2004.
Time Period of Content:
Time Period Information:
Range of Dates/Times:
Beginning Date: 19941215
Ending Date: Present
Currentness Reference: ground condition
Status:
Progress: Complete
Maintenance and Update Frequency: Twice a Month
Spatial Domain:
Bounding Coordinates:
West Bounding Coordinate: -180.0
East Bounding Coordinate: -66.0
North Bounding Coordinate: 72.0
South Bounding Coordinate: 24.0
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: ISO 19115 Topic Category
Theme Keyword: climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: NASA GCMD Science Keywords
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Precipitation > Precipitation Amount
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Precipitation > Precipitation Anomalies
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Precipitation > Precipitation Rate
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: None
Theme Keyword: Precipitation Anomalies
Theme Keyword: Precipitation Probabilities
Theme Keyword: Seasonal Outlooks
Theme Keyword: Seasonal Precipitation
Theme Keyword: Monthly Outlooks
Theme Keyword: Monthly Precipitation
Theme Keyword: One Month Outlooks
Theme Keyword: One Month Precipitation
Theme Keyword: Precipitation Categories
Theme Keyword: Precipitation
Theme Keyword: precipitation Categories
Theme Keyword: long range weather forecast
Theme Keyword: long range forecast
Theme Keyword: long term weather forecast
Theme Keyword: noaa long range forecast
Theme Keyword: long range weather forecast noaa
Theme Keyword: long range forecast noaa
Theme Keyword: long term forecast
Theme Keyword: noaa long range
Theme Keyword: long term weather forecast noaa
Theme Keyword: noaa long term forecast
Theme Keyword: national weather service long range forecast
Theme Keyword: noaa long range weather forecast
Theme Keyword: long range weather
Theme Keyword: 30 day forecast
Theme Keyword: 30 day weather forecast
Theme Keyword: nws long range forecast
Theme Keyword: long term weather outlook
Theme Keyword: climate forecast
Theme Keyword: climate outlook
Theme Keyword: long term forecast noaa
Place:
Place Keyword Thesaurus: NASA GCMD Location Keywords
Place Keyword: Continent > North America > United States of America
Stratum:
Stratum Keyword Thesaurus: NASA GCMD Location Keywords
Stratum Keyword: Vertical Location > Boundary layer
(thelayid):
(numthlay):2
(layrname):
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: ISO 19115 Topic Category
Theme Keyword: climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
(layrname):
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: NASA GCMD Science Keywords
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Precipitation > Precipitation Amount
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Precipitation > Precipitation Anomalies
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Precipitation > Precipitation Rate
Access Constraints: None
Use Constraints: Acknowledgment of the Data Originator when using the data item as a source.
Point of Contact:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Organization: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA
Contact Position: Meteorologist
Contact Address:
Address Type: mailing and physical
Address: 5830 University Research Ct.
City: Collge Park
State or Province: Maryland
Postal Code: 20740
Country: United States of America
Contact Voice Telephone: (301) 683-3454
Contact Electronic Mail Address: jon.gottschalck@noaa.gov
Hours: 08:00 - 5:00 PM Eastern
Browse Graphic:
Browse Graphic File Name: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_prcp.gif
Browse Graphic File Description: Climate Prediction Center (CPC) probabilistic three month precipitation outlook
Browse Graphic File Type: GIF
Data Set Credit: Climate Prediction Center
(progaff):
(progname):Climate Prediction Center
Data Quality Information:
Attribute Value Accuracy Information:
Attribute Accuracy Report: The accuracy of this dataset is vetted through a monthly verification process (which compares the forecast data with observations).
Logical Consistency Report: This product has demonstrated long term skill with respect to climatological forecasts. Specific verification statistics can be accessed at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/mon_veri.grid.php.
Completeness Report: Quality control of this dataset includes: 1) Making sure probability values add up to 100, 2) Making sure that negative probability values are not present, and 3) comparing data values to map representation. All users of this data are encouraged to follow steps (1), (2), and (3) above and contact the Climate Prediction Center if the data does not pass these quality control criteria.
Lineage:
Process Step:
Process Description: These data are produced based on interpolation of official monthly precipitation probability maps. The forecast maps are produced using National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (N-AWIPS) General Environmental Meteorological Package (GEMPAK) software. GEMPAK software is used to produce Virtual Graphics Files (VGF) and GIF images of the monthly outlooks. These VGF files are then interpolated to stations via Barnes objective analysis (using the GEMPAK grphgd subroutine). These data are then converted to ascii format using the GEMPAK gdlist subroutine. The GIS shapefiles are produced by converting the VGF files to an ascii listing of the location of the vertices of the contours that were drawn on the map. Python back-end coding using ArcMap libraries was then used to convert the ascii file to a shapefile with the appropriate attributes.
Process Date: 2013
Process Contact:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Organization: Climate Prediction Center
Contact Person: Scott Handel
Contact Position: Meteorologist
Contact Address:
Address Type: physical
Address: 5830 University Research Ct.
City: College Park
State or Province: MD
Postal Code: 20740
Contact Voice Telephone: (301)683-3454
Contact TDD/TTY Telephone: (301)683-3454
Contact Electronic Mail Address: Scott.Handel@noaa.gov
Hours: 9 AM to 5 PM
Contact Instructions: Call the office
Spatial Data Organization Information:
Direct Spatial Reference Method: Vector
Entity and Attribute Information:
Overview Description:
Entity and Attribute Overview: The contours on the map show the total probability (%) of three categories, above, indicated by the letter "A", below, indicated by the letter "B", and the middle category, indicated by the letter "N". At any point on the map, the sum of the probabilities of these three categories is 100%. For any particular location, and month, these three categories are defined from the 30 observations from 1981-2010. The driest 1/3 define the B category, the wettest 1/3 define the A category, and the remaining 10 years in between define the middle (N) category. When the forecasters decide that one of the extreme categories, say above (A), is the most likely one, they assign probabilities which exceed 33.33% to that category, and label the map with an "A" in the center of the region of enhanced probabilities. To make it possible to display three categories on one map, we assume that, when either A, or B is the most likely category, the probability of the middle category remains at 33.33% for most situations. This means, for example, that when the probability of A (B) is 40%, the probability of N is 33.33%, and the probability of B (A) is 100% minus 40%+33.33%=26.67%. When probability values of the favored category reaches 70%, or higher, the probability of the opposite category is fixed at 3.3%, and the probability of the middle category is adjusted to values (less than 33.33%) which cause the sum of the three probabilities to equal 100%. When the middle category (N) is higher than 33.33%, the probabilities of the A and B categories decline by (equal) amounts required for the sum of the A, N, B probabilities to equal 100%. In regions where the forecasters have no forecast tools which favor the chance of either A, or B, the chance of these two categories is defined to be 33.33% each, and the region is labeled "EC", which stands for equal chances. Shading is used to indicate different levels of probability above 33.33%. The maps have associated data files that are produced in ascii format and contain the following fields: Lines 1 and 2) Header lines that contain parameter listings and column headings. A listing of parameters are indicated below: STN: Station World Meteorological Organization (WMO) number; YYMMDD: Date forecast was issued; HHMM: Lead Number (Ex: 0100 = lead 01 = 0.5 month lead, 0200 = lead 02 = 1.5 month lead, 1400 = Monthly Forecast, 1500 = Revised Monthly Forecast); TBLW: Probability of Below Normal Temperatures; TNML: Probability of Normal Temperatures; TABV: Probability of Above Normal Temperatures; TCAT: Temperature Forecast Category (1=Below;2=Normal;3=Above;4=Equal Chances); PBLW: Probability of Below Normal Precipitation; PNML: Probability of Normal Precipitation; PABV: Probability of Above Normal Precipitation; PCAT: Precipitation Forecast Category (1=Below;2=Normal;3=Above;4=Equal Chances). In the shapefiles, the attributes are: Fcst_Date: The date the forecast was made; Valid_Seas: The abbreviation for the valid month and year; Prob: The probability value that the contour is associated with; Cat: The category, Below or Above (Normal) that the contour is associated with.
Entity and Attribute Detail Citation: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Distribution Information:
Distributor:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Organization: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Contact Position: Meteorologist
Contact Address:
Address Type: mailing and physical
Address: 5830 University Research Ct.
City: College Park
State or Province: Maryland
Postal Code: 20740
Country: United States of America
Contact Voice Telephone: (301) 683-3454
Contact Electronic Mail Address: scott.handel@noaa.gov
Distribution Liability: The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. NWS is providing this data as is, and NWS disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will NWS be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. As required by 17 U.S.C. 403, third parties producing copyrighted works consisting predominantly of the material appearing in NWS Web pages must provide notice with such work(s) identifying the NWS material incorporated and stating that such material is not subject to copyright protection. Refer the NOAA National Weather Service disclaimer; http://www.weather.gov/disclaimer.php
Standard Order Process:
Digital Form:
Digital Transfer Information:
Format Name: GIF
File Decompression Technique: gzip
Digital Transfer Option:
Online Option:
Computer Contact Information:
Network Address:
Network Resource Name: ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpcfcsts/archives/long_lead/data
Network Resource Name: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/us_tempprcpfcst/seasonal.php
Fees: None
Metadata Reference Information:
Metadata Date: 20130122
Metadata Contact:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Organization: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Contact Position: Meteorologist
Contact Address:
Address Type: mailing and physical
Address: 5830 University Research Ct.
City: College Park
State or Province: Maryland
Postal Code: 20740
Country: United States of America
Contact Voice Telephone: (301) 763-8000
Contact Electronic Mail Address: scott.handel@noaa.gov
Metadata Standard Name: FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata Standard Version: FGDC-STD-001-1998
Metadata Extensions:
Online Linkage: http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/metadataresource/metadata-references/files/ncddcmdprofile_v2.pdf
Profile Name: Content Specification for Metadata in the National Coastal Data Development Center's Data Catalog Version 2.0
Metadata Extensions:
Online Linkage: http://www.fgdc.gov/standards/projects/FGDC-standards-projects/csdgm_rs_ex/MetadataRemoteSensingExtens.pdf
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