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Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6 to 10 Day Probabilistic Temperature Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska


Identification Information:
(datsetid):gov.noaa.cpc:CPC-TEMP-DLY-PTO-6-to-10-v2001
Citation:
Citation Information:
Originator: Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
Publication Date: 1978
Title: Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6 to 10 Day Probabilistic Temperature Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska
Geospatial Data Presentation Form: map
Publication Information:
Publication Place: Maryland
Publisher: Climate Prediction Center
Online Linkage: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
Online Linkage: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/us_tempprcpfcst/index.php
Description:
Abstract: The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues 6 to 10 day probabilistic temperature outlooks for the United States. The 6-10 day Outlook gives the confidence that a forecaster has, given as a probability, that the observed temperature, averaged over upcoming days 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 will be in the range of one of three possible categories below (B), normal (N), or above (A). For any calendar 5-day period, these categories can be defined by separating the 30 years of the climatology period, 1981-2010 (30 years), into the coldest 10 years, the middle 10 years, and the warmest 10 years. Because each of these categories occurs 1/3 of the time (10 times) during 1981-2010, for any particular calendar 5-day period, the probability of any category being selected at random from the 1981-2010 set of 30 observations is one in three (1/3), or 33.33%. This is also called the climatological probability. The sum of the climatological probabilities of the three categories is 100%.
Purpose: Used for business and economic planning, particularly when used with 30 year base period means.
Time Period of Content:
Time Period Information:
Range of Dates/Times:
Beginning Date: 1978
Ending Date: Present
Currentness Reference: ground condition
Status:
Progress: Complete
Maintenance and Update Frequency: Daily
Spatial Domain:
Bounding Coordinates:
West Bounding Coordinate: -180.00
East Bounding Coordinate: -66.00
North Bounding Coordinate: 72.00
South Bounding Coordinate: 24.00
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: ISO 19115 Topic Category
Theme Keyword: climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: NASA GCMD Science Keywords
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Air Temperature
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Boundary Layer Temperature
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Surface Air Temperature
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Temperature Anomalies
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: None
Theme Keyword: climate outlooks
Theme Keyword: 6 to 10 day outlook
Theme Keyword: 6 to 10 day forecast
Theme Keyword: 6-10 day outlook
Theme Keyword: 6-10 day forecast
Theme Keyword: 6-10 day temperature outlook
Theme Keyword: 6-10 day temperature forecast
Theme Keyword: 6 to 10 day temperature outlook
Theme Keyword: 6 to 10 day temperature forecast
Theme Keyword: extended weather forecast
Theme Keyword: climate forecast
Theme Keyword: 6-10 day weather outlook
Place:
Place Keyword Thesaurus: NASA GCMD Location Keywords
Place Keyword: Continent > North America > United States of America
Stratum:
Stratum Keyword Thesaurus: NASA GCMD Location Keywords
Stratum Keyword: Vertical Location > Boundary layer
(thelayid):
(numthlay):2
(layrname):
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: ISO 19115 Topic Category
Theme Keyword: climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
(layrname):
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: NASA GCMD Science Keywords
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Air Temperature
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Boundary Layer Temperature
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Surface Air Temperature
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Temperature Anomalies
Access Constraints: None
Use Constraints: Acknowledgment of the Data Originator when using the data item as a source.
Point of Contact:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Organization: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA
Contact Position: Scott Handel
Contact Address:
Address Type: mailing and physical
Address: 5830 University Research Ct.
City: College Park
State or Province: Maryland
Postal Code: 20740
Country: United States of America
Contact Voice Telephone: (301) 683-3454
Contact Electronic Mail Address: scott.handel@noaa.gov
Hours: 09:00 - 5:00 PM Eastern
Browse Graphic:
Browse Graphic File Name: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
Browse Graphic File Description: 6 to 10 day temperature probability outlook
Browse Graphic File Type: GIF
Data Set Credit: Jon Hoopingarner is the creator of this dataset.
(progaff):
(progname):Climate Prediction Center
Data Quality Information:
Attribute Value Accuracy Information:
Attribute Accuracy Report: The accuracy of this dataset is vetted through a daily verification process (which compares the forecast data with observations).
Logical Consistency Report: This product has demonstrated long term skill with respect to climatological forecasts.
Completeness Report: Quality control of this dataset includes: 1) Making sure probability values add up to 100, 2) Making sure that negative probability values are not present, 3) Making sure that category values have a value of 1.0, 2.0, or 3.0. All users of this data are encouraged to follow steps (1), (2), and (3) above and contact the Climate Prediction Center if the data does not pass these quality control criteria.
Lineage:
Process Step:
Process Description: These data are produced based on interpolation of official 6 to 10 day temperature probability maps. The forecast maps are produced using National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (N-AWIPS) General Environmental Meteorological Package (GEMPAK) software. GEMPAK software is used to produce Virtual Graphics Files (VGF) of the 6-10 day forecasts. These VGF files are then interpolated to stations via Barnes objective analysis (using the GEMPAK grphgd subroutine). These data are then converted to ASCII format using the GEMPAK gdlist subroutine. The GIS shapefiles are produced by converting the VGF files to an ascii listing of the location of the vertices of the contours that were drawn on the map. Python back-end coding using ArcMap libraries was then used to convert the ascii file to a shapefile with the appropriate attributes.
Process Date: 2011
Process Contact:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Organization: Climate Prediction Center
Contact Person: Scott Handel
Contact Position: Meteorologist
Contact Address:
Address Type: physical
Address: 5830 University Research Ct.
City: College Park
State or Province: MD
Postal Code: 20740
Contact Voice Telephone: (301) 683-3454
Contact TDD/TTY Telephone: (301) 683-3454
Contact Electronic Mail Address: scott.handel@noaa.gov
Hours: 9 AM to 5 PM
Contact Instructions: Call the office
Spatial Data Organization Information:
Direct Spatial Reference Method: Point
Entity and Attribute Information:
Overview Description:
Entity and Attribute Overview: The colored shading on the map indicates the degree of confidence the forecaster has in the category indicated, where "B" and blue colors indicate "below-normal" and "A" and orange-red colors indicate "above normal". The darker the shading, the greater is the level of confidence. The numbers labeling the contours separating different shades gives the probability that the indicated category (A, B, or N) will occur. The probabilities of all three categories are implied on the map, and sum to 100%. The forecast probabilities given on the map generally fall far short of complete confidence (100%) in any single category. When the probability of the above (A) or below (B) category is greater than 33.33% by some amount, the probability of the opposite category declines by that amount, while the probability of the middle category remains at 33.33%. In the event that the N category is greater than 33.33%, the probabilities of both the "A" and "B" categories is each reduced by 1/2 the amount that the "N" category exceeds 33.33%. When the probability of "A", or "B" reaches 63.33% or higher, the odds of the opposite category reach a minimum allowed value of 3.33%, while the odds of the middle category are allowed to drop below 33.33%. The dashed contours on the map give the average of the temperature over the set of 30 observations for the calendar 5-day period during 1981-2010, in degrees Farenheit. The maps have associated data files that are produced in ascii format and contain the following fields: Lines 1 and 2) Header lines that contain parameter listings and column headings. A listing of parameters are indicated below: STN: Station World Meteorological Organization (WMO) number; YYMMDD: Forecast Issuance Date (for data created before August 2008) Center of Forecast Valid Period (for data created after July 2008); HHMM: Undefined; TBLW: Probability of below normal temperature (Units are 0-100); TNRM: Probability of near normal temperature (Units are 0-100); TABV: Probability of above normal temperature (Units are 0-100); TCAT: Temperature Category (Units are 1-3; where 1=below, 2=near, 3=above); PBLW: Probability of below median precipitation (Units are 0-100); PNRM: Probability of near median precipitation (Units are 0-100); PABV: Probability of above median precipitation (Units are 0-100); PCAT: Precipitation Category (Units are 1-3; where 1=below, 2=near, 3=above); The shapefiles have the following attributes: Fcst_Date: The date the forecast was made; Start_Date: The starting date of the valid period; End_Date: The ending date of the valid period; Prob: The probability value associated with the contour; Cat: The category, Above or Below (Normal) that the contour is associated with.
Entity and Attribute Detail Citation: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Distribution Information:
Distributor:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Organization: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Contact Position: Scott Handel
Contact Address:
Address Type: mailing and physical
Address: 5830 University Research Ct
City: College Park
State or Province: Maryland
Postal Code: 20740
Country: United States of America
Contact Voice Telephone: (301) 683-3454
Contact Electronic Mail Address: scott.handel@noaa.gov
Distribution Liability: The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. NWS is providing this data "as is," and NWS disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will NWS be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. As required by 17 U.S.C. 403, third parties producing copyrighted works consisting predominantly of the material appearing in NWS Web pages must provide notice with such work(s) identifying the NWS material incorporated and stating that such material is not subject to copyright protection. Refer the NOAA National Weather Service disclaimer; http://www.weather.gov/disclaimer.php
Standard Order Process:
Digital Form:
Digital Transfer Information:
Format Name: ASCII
File Decompression Technique: zip
Digital Transfer Option:
Online Option:
Computer Contact Information:
Network Address:
Network Resource Name: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
Network Resource Name: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/us_tempprcpfcst/index.php
Fees: None
Metadata Reference Information:
Metadata Date: 20130122
Metadata Contact:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Organization: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Contact Position: Scott Handel
Contact Address:
Address Type: mailing and physical
Address: 5830 University Research Ct.
City: College Park
State or Province: Maryland
Postal Code: 20740
Country: United States of America
Contact Voice Telephone: (301) 683-3454
Contact Electronic Mail Address: scott.handel@noaa.gov
Metadata Standard Name: FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata Standard Version: FGDC-STD-001-1998
Metadata Extensions:
Online Linkage: http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/metadataresource/metadata-references/files/ncddcmdprofile_v2.pdf
Profile Name: Content Specification for Metadata in the National Coastal Data Development Center's Data Catalog Version 2.0
Metadata Extensions:
Online Linkage: http://www.fgdc.gov/standards/projects/FGDC-standards-projects/csdgm_rs_ex/MetadataRemoteSensingExtens.pdf
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