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Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO)


Identification Information:
(datsetid):gov.noaa.cpc:CPC-MDO
Citation:
Citation Information:
Originator: Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
Publication Date: 20130630
Title: Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO)
Geospatial Data Presentation Form: vector digital data
Publication Information:
Publication Place: Maryland
Publisher: Climate Prediction Center
Online Linkage: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/monthly_drought.html
Online Linkage: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/droughtlook/index.shtml
Description:
Abstract: A CPC forecaster (from a rotating schedule of 5 as of August 2013) creates the Monthly Drought Outlook map and narratives. The map, produced using GIS, shows where current drought areas are expected to improve, be removed, or persist with intensity, as well as new areas where drought may develop, at the end of the forecast period. The current drought areas are obtained from the most recent weekly U.S. Drought Monitor where drought is considered D1 (moderate drought) or worse. There are two narratives: a brief, general summary and a detailed, regional technical discussion that describes the thought process, forecast tools used, and confidence for each region on the map. These outlook products apply to the following 1-month period from the date of issue. The MDO replaced the updated SDO (which had been released on the first Thursday of the month) starting on June 30, 2013, with the MDO released on the last day of the month. The forecast applies to all 50 states of the United States plus Puerto Rico.
Purpose: To present a general picture of the overall drought tendency during the valid period. This is designated for a non-technical audience and is not designed to be a scientific contribution.
Time Period of Content:
Time Period Information:
Range of Dates/Times:
Beginning Date: 20130630
Ending Date: Present
Currentness Reference: ground condition
Status:
Progress: Complete
Maintenance and Update Frequency: Once a Month (Last day of the Month)
Spatial Domain:
Bounding Coordinates:
West Bounding Coordinate: 175.00
East Bounding Coordinate: -65.50
North Bounding Coordinate: 72.00
South Bounding Coordinate: 17.50
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: ISO 19115 Topic Category
Theme Keyword: climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: NASA GCMD Science Keywords
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Atmospheric Phenomena > Drought
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Precipitation > Precipitation Anomalies
Theme Keyword: Human Dimensions > Natural Hazards > Meteorological Hazards
Theme Keyword: Human Dimensions > Environmental Impacts > Water Management
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: None
Theme Keyword: precipitation
Theme Keyword: drought
Theme Keyword: outlook
Theme Keyword: forecast
Theme Keyword: monthly
Place:
Place Keyword Thesaurus: NASA GCMD Location Keywords
Place Keyword: Continent > North America > United States of America
Place Keyword: Ocean > Atlantic Ocean > North Atlantic Ocean > Caribbean Sea > Puerto Rico
Stratum:
Stratum Keyword Thesaurus: NASA GCMD Location Keywords
Stratum Keyword: Vertical Location > Land Surface
(thelayid):
(numthlay):2
(layrname):
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: ISO 19115 Topic Category
Theme Keyword: climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
(layrname):
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: NASA GCMD Science Keywords
Theme Keyword: Atmosphere > Atmospheric Phenomena > Drought
Access Constraints: None
Use Constraints: Acknowledgment of the Data Originator when using the data item as a source.
Point of Contact:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Organization: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA
Contact Person: David Miskus
Contact Address:
Address Type: mailing and physical
Address: 5830 University Research Court, Room 3146
City: College Park
State or Province: Maryland
Postal Code: 20740
Country: United States of America
Contact Voice Telephone: (301) 683-3453
Contact Electronic Mail Address: David.Miskus@noaa.gov
Hours: 08:30 AM – 4:30 PM Eastern
Browse Graphic:
Browse Graphic File Name: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png
Browse Graphic File Description: Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly Drought Outlook
Browse Graphic File Type: PNG
Data Set Credit: Brad Pugh, Rich Tinker, Anthony Artusa, and Adam Allgood are the current DO authors, while Randy Schechter provides useful forecast guidance to the authors. Douglas LeComte (CPC retired in 2010) was the founder of the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook back in 1999.
(progaff):
(progname):Climate Prediction Center
Data Quality Information:
Attribute Value Accuracy Information:
Attribute Accuracy Report: The accuracy (skill) of the large-scale drought trends are based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by short, medium and long-term statistical and dynamical forecasts. The initial drought data is obtained from the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) GIS shape files for drought areas D1 or worse from National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) in Lincoln, NE. A MDO verification score is made from the USDM at the end of the valid period. Originally, the category Some Improvement (which has been replaced since June 30, 2013) was not scored, and no verification is made for Hawaii, Alaska, or Puerto Rico as of August 2013. In short, the drought shape files from the USDM are compared with the MDO areas of improvement (removal is scored as improvement), persistence, and development to detect number of drought hits and misses (pixels) via the GIS spatial analyst. A hits versus misses score (%) is calculated, and then an outlook skill is determined from the score minus the persistence forecast baseline score. The MDO verifications (maps and statistics) have been archived by CPC since August 2013 (since first ever MDO was released on June 30, 2013), and are available upon request. Future plans include MDO verifications to be on the CPC web site.
Logical Consistency Report: The MDO author is responsible for obtaining the most recent and final weekly US Drought Monitor D0 thru D4 shape files from the NDMC file server or USDM author and overlaying them on the MDO MXD. Once this is done, the author must determine whether to draw an area of Persistence, Improvement (at least one category improvement but drought remains), or Removal (no drought remains – D0 or none) over the D1-D4 areas based upon future outlooks, forecasts, and analogs. The author can use the Snapping or Tracing options in ArcMap10 to precisely overlay their drought outlook areas to the borders of the D1 areas, and to other existing MDO areas. The author may also use the USDM’s D0 areas as a guide for new drought Development areas. They may snap to the D0 lines, or not, depending if the author believes that drought will develop beyond the current border of D0 (abnormal dryness). However, there may be some slight overlapping of MDO areas, or some slight gaps between MDO areas depending upon how accurate (e.g. how many points) the author draws their MDO areas. Since this product is currently meant for a non-technical audience, no logical consistency tests are made on the MDO areas. But once all the MDO areas are drawn and final, a script is run to clip the areas to the US border so no MDO areas are over water or in Mexico or Canada.
Completeness Report: Quality control was performed on the most recent USDM shape files by NDMC as drought area input to the MDO. There is no quality control of the MDO shape files, but the MDO author cannot contradict CPC’s 1-month precipitation outlook (e.g. show drought development where the updated monthly precipitation outlook favors wetness). Information about the NWS operational aspects of the MDO is contained in: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01012002curr.pdf
Lineage:
Process Step:
Process Description: Initial MDO drought areas (shape files) are obtained from the most recent USDM via ftp site from the NDMC in Lincoln, NE, and lastly from the USDM author on Wednesday. The MDO author use the D1 (moderate drought) to D4 (exceptional drought) areas, and manually draws for persistence, improvement, development, or removal using ArcMap/GIS for the current D1 areas. The D0 (abnormal dryness) areas are also overlaid on the US base map in case the MDO author believes that drought (D1 or drier) will develop by the end of the MDO outlook period. The latest ArcMap version (version 10) point snapping routine assures that the author will overlay the existing D1 areas. The large-scale drought trends are based upon subjectively derived probabilities guided by short and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts. Data which contributes to the drought forecast includes the USDM, CPC long lead outlooks of precipitation and temperature, CPC medium range forecasts, La Nina and El Nino analogs, and various other climate and forecast products. The MDO cannot contradict CPC’s one-month precipitation outlook for that period. The MDO GIS shape files are saved for archival, especially for verification once the MDO period ends and the applicable USDM is available for comparison.
Process Date: 2013
Process Contact:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Organization: Climate Prediction Center
Contact Person: David Miskus
Contact Address:
Address Type: physical
Address: 5830 University Research Court, Room 3146
City: College Park
State or Province: MD
Postal Code: 20740
Contact Voice Telephone: (301) 683-3453
Contact TDD/TTY Telephone: (301) 683-3453
Contact Facsimile Telephone: (301) 683-1557 or 1558
Contact Electronic Mail Address: David.Miskus@noaa.gov
Hours: 8:30 AM to 4:30 PM Eastern
Contact Instructions: Call the office or email
Spatial Data Organization Information:
Direct Spatial Reference Method: Vector
Entity and Attribute Information:
Overview Description:
Entity and Attribute Overview: The primary input parameters are the D1 (moderate drought) to D4 (exceptional drought) areas from the most recent USDM where the MDO author will create drought areas of persistence, improvement, or removal. The author may also use the USDM’s D0 areas (abnormal dryness) to create areas of drought development. The MDO contains the U.S. drought tendency map, a general summary, and a detailed technical discussion. The citation is at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/monthly_drought.html. The MDO output shape file layer is: D0_Merge_Clip, and its Attribute Table includes: FID_improv (Improvement), FID_persis (Persistence), FID_Remove (Removal), FID_dev (Development) where each shape file (or polygon area) is marked either 0 or 1 (0=not this category, 1=this category), and Fcst_Date (date in format dd/mm/yyyy) when this MDO was released), and Target (month this MDO was forecasted for, e.g. June 2013 = Jun 2013). On the final MDO, forecasted drought areas are both text labeled with arrows and colored: Persistence=Brown, Improvement=Brown and Green stripes, Development=Yellow, and Removal=Green.
Entity and Attribute Detail Citation: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Distribution Information:
Distributor:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Organization: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Contact Person: David Miskus
Contact Address:
Address Type: mailing and physical
Address: 5830 University Research Court
City: College Park
State or Province: Maryland
Postal Code: 20740
Country: United States of America
Contact Voice Telephone: (301) 683-3453
Contact Electronic Mail Address: David.Miskus@noaa.gov
Distribution Liability: The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. NWS is providing this data "as is," and NWS disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will NWS be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. As required by 17 U.S.C. 403, third parties producing copyrighted works consisting predominantly of the material appearing in NWS Web pages must provide notice with such work(s) identifying the NWS material incorporated and stating that such material is not subject to copyright protection. Refer the NOAA National Weather Service disclaimer; http://www.weather.gov/disclaimer.php
Standard Order Process:
Digital Form:
Digital Transfer Information:
Format Name: Shape file
File Decompression Technique: zip
Digital Transfer Option:
Online Option:
Computer Contact Information:
Network Address:
Network Resource Name: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/droughtlook/index.shtml
Fees: None
Metadata Reference Information:
Metadata Date: 20130822
Metadata Contact:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Organization: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Contact Person: Sudhir Raj Shrestha
Contact Address:
Address Type: mailing and physical
Address: 5830 University Research Court, Room 3032
City: College Park
State or Province: Maryland
Postal Code: 20740
Country: United States of America
Contact Voice Telephone: (301) 683-3412
Contact Electronic Mail Address: sudhir.shrestha@noaa.gov
Metadata Standard Name: FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata Standard Version: FGDC-STD-001-1998
Metadata Extensions:
Online Linkage: http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/metadataresource/metadata-references/files/ncddcmdprofile_v2.pdf
Profile Name: Content Specification for Metadata in the National Coastal Data Development Center's Data Catalog Version 2.0
Metadata Extensions:
Online Linkage: http://www.fgdc.gov/standards/projects/FGDC-standards-projects/csdgm_rs_ex/MetadataRemoteSensingExtens.pdf
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